Population growth in England and Wales slowed markedly in the year to mid-2025 as net international migration fell, according to new estimates from the Office for National Statistics.
The combined population reached an estimated 62.0 million, an increase of 224,900 people, or 0.4%, from mid-2024. This was the lowest annual growth rate since the pandemic-affected year to mid-2020 and followed three years of much stronger increases.
The change matters for businesses and policymakers because population trends influence the size and composition of the workforce, demand for housing and consumer services, and pressure on pensions, healthcare and local infrastructure. The figures also reveal substantial geographic differences, including a population decline in London and the first annual fall in Wales for a decade.
Net migration falls by more than 400,000
The main reason for the slower increase was a sharp reduction in net international migration, which measures the difference between people moving into England and Wales from overseas and those leaving.
The ONS estimated that net international migration fell to 211,700 in the year to mid-2025, down from 612,500 in the previous 12 months.
That decline reflected movement in both directions. Immigration from outside the UK decreased from approximately 1.20 million to 816,500, while emigration rose from 584,900 to 604,800.
Earlier ONS analysis found that the fall in UK-wide net migration was principally associated with fewer non-EU nationals arriving for work-related reasons. Changes to visa rules, the completion of courses by international students and weaker demand in some recruitment-intensive industries are among the factors that can affect these flows, although the population estimates do not assign a precise cause to each movement.
Migration nevertheless remained the largest contributor to population growth. There were also an estimated 5,900 net internal moves from England and Wales to Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Birth numbers reach their lowest level since 1978
Longer-term demographic pressures are becoming increasingly visible alongside the migration figures.
There were an estimated 588,000 births in England and Wales during the year to mid-2025, 8,000 fewer than in the previous year and the lowest total since mid-1978. Deaths decreased by 2,300 to 568,400, leaving a natural population increase of only 19,600.
Natural change, defined as births minus deaths, therefore contributed relatively little to overall growth. Since the end of the 1990s, migration has generally been the largest source of population expansion in England and Wales.
The latest national projections indicate that deaths could exceed births across the UK from mid-2026 onwards. The ONS projects approximately 450,000 more deaths than births between mid-2024 and mid-2034, although it emphasises that projections are based on assumptions and should not be treated as firm predictions.
This distinction is important. Fertility, life expectancy and migration can all change in response to economic conditions, government policy and international events. The direction of travel towards an older population is clearer than the precise scale or timing.
England grows while the population of Wales declines
England’s population increased by 227,600, or 0.4%, to an estimated 58.83 million. Wales recorded a decrease of 2,800, or 0.1%, taking its population to approximately 3.18 million. It was the first annual decline in Wales since the year to mid-2015.
The largest contributor to the Welsh decrease was natural change, with deaths exceeding births. International migration and movements from elsewhere in the UK added to the population but were insufficient to offset that shortfall.
Wales also has an older population than England. Its median age reached 43.2 years in mid-2025, compared with 40.6 in England. People aged 65 and over accounted for 22.2% of the Welsh population and 19.1% of England’s.
The number of people aged between 16 and 64 increased by 104,600 in England but declined by 4,800 in Wales. Meanwhile, the number of children aged 15 and under fell in both countries, decreasing by 93,200 in England and 8,700 in Wales.
For employers, these trends could intensify existing recruitment difficulties in parts of Wales and in sectors that depend on a large local workforce. They may also alter patterns of consumer demand, increasing the relative importance of healthcare, financial planning, home adaptation and services aimed at older households.
London records a population fall despite overseas arrivals
London was the only English region to record a population decline, falling by 0.29% in the year to mid-2025. The capital still experienced more births than deaths and positive net international migration, but these gains were outweighed by people moving to other parts of the UK.
The ONS estimates do not establish why individual residents moved. Housing costs, household formation, remote and hybrid working, access to larger homes and changing employment patterns may all influence internal migration, but their relative importance requires separate evidence.
The development is economically significant because London remains a central source of UK output, employment, tax revenue and business creation. A modest annual population decline does not by itself imply an economic contraction, particularly if employment and productivity continue to rise. However, persistent losses of working-age residents could affect labour availability, demand for public transport and the customer base of consumer-facing businesses.
Elsewhere, the North West recorded the strongest regional population growth, driven principally by international migration and arrivals from other parts of the UK. Overall, 240 of the 318 local authority areas in England and Wales experienced population growth. That represented 75% of local authorities, compared with at least 94% in each of the previous three years.
Business implications extend beyond headline population totals
Sentoria’s analysis is that the composition and location of population change may matter more to businesses than the national headline alone. Slower population growth can moderate aggregate demand for housing, retail goods and some local services. It can also reduce the rate at which additional workers enter the economy, particularly where the number of working-age residents is stagnant or falling.
An ageing population presents a broader economic challenge. The number of people aged 65 and over increased by 216,200 in England and 10,800 in Wales during the latest year. Over the decade to mid-2034, the ONS projects that the UK population of pensionable age will rise by 1.8 million, or 14.6%, even after accounting for the planned increase in the state pension age to 67.
This is likely to increase demand for health and social care while adding to pension expenditure. Unless accompanied by stronger productivity, higher employment or additional tax revenue, demographic ageing can place greater pressure on the public finances and on employers competing for workers.
The effects will not be uniform. Areas with rising populations may need additional housing, schools, transport and utilities. Areas with declining or ageing populations face a different problem: maintaining services and commercial viability across a smaller or less economically active customer base.
For property developers and infrastructure investors, the local authority detail may therefore be more useful than the national total. Rugby recorded the strongest local population growth at 2.4%, while Camden had the largest decline among substantial local authorities at 1.8%. The ONS cautions that estimates for smaller areas have wider margins of uncertainty.
Future estimates may be revised
The ONS has stressed that population estimates are subject to statistical uncertainty, especially for smaller locations and detailed age groups. Figures from mid-2022 onwards may be revised as migration data and estimation methods improve.
The agency has already revised estimates for 2022, 2023 and 2024 to incorporate updated international migration information. Most of those changes remained within previously published uncertainty ranges.
Further migration releases will help determine whether the latest slowdown represents a lasting shift or partly reflects temporary movements following the unusually high migration recorded after the pandemic.
Businesses should also watch whether the decline in London continues, how quickly working-age populations change in different regions and whether government migration policy creates shortages in sectors that have relied heavily on overseas recruitment.
A slower-growing and older market
The latest figures mark a clear break from the exceptional population increases recorded earlier in the decade. England and Wales are still growing overall, but at a considerably slower rate and with greater differences between regions.
The immediate economic effect is unlikely to be dramatic. Population trends operate gradually and interact with employment, productivity, housing supply and investment. Their cumulative consequences, however, can be substantial.
For British businesses, the central message is that future consumer and labour-market growth cannot be assumed to follow recent patterns. An ageing population, fewer births and lower net migration will place greater emphasis on productivity, workforce participation and the ability of companies and public services to adapt to sharply different local conditions.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.